Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Different Agro-climatic Zones of India

Naveen P Singh (ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics & Policy Research (NIAP), New Delhi, India)
Bhawna Anand (ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics & Policy Research (NIAP), New Delhi, India)
S K Srivastava (ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics & Policy Research (NIAP), New Delhi, India)
K V Rao (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, India)
S K Bal (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, India)
M Prabhakar (ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, India)


The study attempts to estimate and predict climate impact on crop yields using future temperature projections under two climate emissions scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for three different time periods (2030s, 2050s and 2080s) across Agro-climatic zones (ACZ) of India. During the period 1966-2011, a significant rise was observed in both the annual mean maximum and minimum temperature across ACZs. Rainfall recorded an annual decline in Himalayan Regions and Gangetic Plains and a rise in Coastal Regions, Plateau & Hills and Western Dry Region. Our results showed high heterogeneity in climate impact on kharif and rabi crop yields (with both negative and positive estimates) across ACZs. It was found that rainfall had a positive effect on most of crop yields, but was not sufficient enough to counterbalance the impact of temperature. Changes in crop yield were more pronounced for higher emission scenario of RCP 8.5. Thus, it was evident that the relative impacts of climate change and the associated vulnerability vary by ACZs, hence comprehensive crop and region-specific adaptation measures should be emphasized that helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural system in short to medium term.


Agro-climatic zones;Climate change;Crop yields;RCPs

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