Reasons for Modern Warming: Hypotheses and Facts

Authors

  • Nikolai Nikolaevich Zavalishin Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i1.4080

Abstract

Two hypotheses of modern warming are considered: natural and anthropogenic. The probabilities of each of them are compared. It is proved that the hypothesis of natural warming is much more likely than the hypothesis of anthropogenic warming. It is shown that the displacement of the Sun from the center of mass of the solar system directly affects the temperature of the surface atmosphere in the synoptic regions of Eurasia. This result corresponds to the model of E. P. Borysenkov with variations of the solar constant or, equivalently, with variations of the Bond albedo.

Keywords:

Hypotheses; Natural; Anthropogenic; Temperature; Lower atmosphere; Albedo; Solar displacement

References

[1] World Climate Change Conference: Abstracts. – Moscow, September 29 - October 3, 2003. 700 p. In Russian.

[2] IPCC Special Report. Global Warming of 1.5ºC. [Electronic resource]/ URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

[3] Jawarowski Z, 2007. CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time // 21st CENTURY Science & Technology. Spring/Summer. P. 14-28. URL: http://21sci-tech.com/Articles%202007/20_1-2_CO2_Scandal.pdf

[4] Druzhinin I.P., Sazonov B.I., Yagodinsky V.N. SpaceEarth. Forecasts. - Moscow: Mysl, 1974. - 288 p. In Russian.

[5] Krymskiy G.F., 2006. Cosmic rays and the Earth’s atmosphere: facts and hypotheses // Journal Solar-Terrestrial Physics. No. 9. P.44-46. In Russian.

[6] Svensmark H., 2007. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges” // Astronomy & Geophysics. Vol. 48, No.1. – P. 18-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4004.2007.48118.x

[7] Jose P.D., 1965. Sun`s motion and sunsports. The Astronomical Journal. Vol.70, No.3. P.193-200.

[8] Golovko V.A., Kondranin T.V., 2003. Statistical models of time series characteristics of the outgoing radiation field of the Earth according to space observations // Electronic journal “Researched in Russia”. No.150. P. 147-151. URL: http://zhurnal.ape.relarn.ru/articles/2003/0150.pdf

[9] IPCC. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. - Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. 996 pp.

[10] Goode P.R., Palle E., Yurchyshyn V.B., et al. Sunshine, earthshine and climate change: II. Solar origins of variations in the Earth`s albedo // J. Korean Astron. Soc. - 2002. - Vol. 35, Supp.1- P. S83-S91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5303/JKAS.2003.36.spc1.083

[11] Zavalishin N.N. The model of dependence of the surface atmospheric temperature on the Earth’s albedo and thermal inertia of hydrosphere // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. - 2010. - Vol. 23, No. 06. - P. 480-484. In Russian. URL: http://ao.iao.ru/ru/content/vol.23-2010/iss.06/10

[12] P. R. Goode, E. Pallé, A. Shoumko, S. Shoumko, P. Montañes-Rodriguez,S. E. Koonin. 2021. Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine. // Geophyzical rearserch letters. Vol.46, Iss. 17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094888

[13] Norman G. Loeb, David R. Doelling1, Hailan Wang, Wenying Su, Cathy Nguyen, Joseph G. Corbett4, Lusheng Liang, Cristian Mitrescu, Fred G. Rose, and Seiji Kato, 2018. Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product.//Journal of climate.Vol. 31. Iss.2. P. 895– 918. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1

[14] Zavalishin N.N., 2009. Assessment of the impact of the Sun shift from the center of inertia on the temperature of the troposphere // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. Vol.22, No. 1. P.31-33. In Russian. URL: http://ao.iao.ru/ru/content/vol.22-2009/iss.01/6

[15] Average monthly and annual air temperature at foreign weather stations in the Northern Hemisphere: Description of the data archive - Obninsk: VNIIGMI-MCD, 1980.75 p.

[16] Anomalies of the average monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation as a percentage of the norm and their norms for weather stations of the USSR territory: Description of the data archive. Obninsk: VNIIGMI-MCD, 1981 43 p.

[17] Zavalishin N.N., 2015. A possible mechanism of modern warming: a decrease in albedo caused by the displacement of the Sun from the barycenter. / XI Siberian meeting on climate and environmental monitoring. Abstracts. - Tomsk, P. 24-25. In Russian. URL: http://www.imces.ru/media/uploads/CCKEM2015.pdf

Downloads

How to Cite

Zavalishin, N. N. (2021). Reasons for Modern Warming: Hypotheses and Facts. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 5(1), 11–17. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i1.4080

Issue

Article Type

Article