Asymmetric Mean Annual Temperature Wavelets Surface Air Layer of Berlin for 1701–2021

Peter Mazurkin (Volga State University of Technology, Yoshkar-Ola, the Republic of Mari El, Russia)

Article ID: 4674

Abstract


The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Berlin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed. A total of 65 wavelets were received. The temperature has a high quantum certainty, and the change in the average annual temperature of Berlin was identified by a model that contains only two components for prediction. The basis of the forecast at 320 years makes it possible to look into the future until the year 2340. The forecast confirms the conclusions made in the CMIP5 report on global warming. With an increase in the number of components in the model up to five, the forecast is possible only until 2060. Therefore, the model with only two components is workable. The trend is characterized by a modified Mandelbrot equation showing exponential growth with a high growth rate of 1.47421. The wave equation also has an amplitude in the form of the Mandelbrot law (in mathematics, the Laplace law, in biology, the Zipf-Pearl law, in econometrics, the Pareto law), when the exponential growth activity is equal to 1. For 1701, the period of oscillation was 2× 60.33333 ≈ 120.7 years. By 2021, the period decreased and became equal to 87.6 years. The trend is such that by 2340 the period of oscillation will decrease to 30.2 years. Such an increase in fluctuations indicates an imbalance in climate disturbances in temperature in Berlin. For Berlin, the last three years are characterized by sharp decreases in the average annual temperature from 11.8 °C to 10.5 °C, i.e. by 12.4% in 2021. Therefore, the forecast is still unstable, as a further decrease in the average annual temperature of Berlin in the near future may change the picture of the forecast.


Keywords


Berlin; Mean annual temperature; 1701–2021; Wavelets; Forecast

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i3.4674

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