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Domestic Savings, Investment, and Economic Growth: an Empirical Evidence from Nepal using VEC Model

Sudan Kumar Oli (School of Insurance and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, 100029, China)
Yuantao Xie (School of Insurance and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, 100029, China)

Article ID: 3359

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jesr.v4i3.3359

Abstract


This study examines the relationship between domestic savings, investment, and economic growth in Nepal by using time series data covering from the period 1975 to 2019. The vector error correction model (VECM) has been used to investigate the long-run and short-run causal relationship between the variables. The Johansen cointegration test results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between savings, investment, and economic growth. Therefore, further analysis has to be set for the VEC model to analyze both long-run and shortrun causality. The VECM equation result is -0.1363 which is the adjustment speed of disequilibrium towards the equilibrium in long run. The coeffi cient of savings and investments are positive with economic growth which also indicates that both variables have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. The results of the Jarque-Bera test show the residual distribution is normally distributed. For the model stability test, the study performed recursive estimation applying CUSUM and CUSUM of square, and both tests move within the 5 percent level of upper and lesser bound significance indicating that the model is stable over the observation period. Overall, the study suggests that in Nepal, domestic savings and investment growth have a positive contribution to economic growth. The central bank, planning commission, and ministry of finance should focus on stimulating the capital formation and productive sector investment for sustainable economic growth in Nepal.

Keywords


Domestic savings; Investment; Economic growth; VECM; Nepalese economy

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References


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