The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Kaiyong Wang (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101, China)
Hu Yu (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101, China)

Article ID: 160



Family planning has been China’s basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a one-child policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China’s population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase; the peak of China’s population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people,which will continuethe regional differentiation of urbanization,andurbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.


Two-child policy; Population; Pattern Urban and rural land use; Urbanization; China

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